Intellectual capacity of Americans declines

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Summary: In 2023, 50 percent of black U.S. adults and 16 percent of white adults scored at the lowest PIAAC literacy level, with larger gaps in math.

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The behavior of American blacks suggests that, in the aggregate, their elevated criminal behavior may be attributed to or correlated with low intelligence.

So I spent much of the evening looking for relative data. Here's what I found.

Nearly half of black adults in the United States scored at the lowest proficiency band on a major federal literacy assessment in 2023, compared with about one in six white adults, according to results from the Program for the International Assessment of Adult Competencies.

The National Center for Education Statistics released the U.S. findings from PIAAC Cycle 2 in December 2024. The survey, run internationally by the OECD, tested adults ages 16 to 65 on literacy, numeracy, and adaptive problem solving between August 2022 and June 2023. Scores run from 0 to 500. Level 1 or below means a score under 226; Level 3 or above means 276 or higher.

In literacy, 50 percent of black adults and 16 percent of white adults scored at Level 1 or below. Both shares rose from 2017, when the figures were 36 percent and 12 percent. Level 1 or below is not the same as being unable to read. Adults at Level 1 can usually manage short texts and basic vocabulary. Those below Level 1 have more trouble with even simple tasks in familiar material. The older “can read and write a simple sentence” literacy rate uses a much lower threshold and is not what PIAAC measures.

At the other end of the scale, about 18 percent of black adults and 56 percent of white adults reached Level 3 or above in literacy. NCES describes the U.S. average as Level 2, which it calls basic functional proficiency. Level 3 or above covers denser texts and tasks that require more inference. Treating that band as the sole marker of being able to handle everyday paperwork is an interpretation, not the agency’s wording.

The average score gaps were large and statistically significant: 57 points in literacy and 67 points in numeracy, so the math gap was wider. In adaptive problem solving, a domain assessed only in 2023, 58 percent of black adults and 21 percent of white adults scored at Level 1 or below. Hispanic adults were at 48 percent on that measure and at 45 percent at Level 1 or below in literacy.

Overall U.S. scores also fell. Average literacy dropped from 271 in 2017 to 258 in 2023, and the share of all adults at Level 1 or below rose from 19 percent to 28 percent. NCES has noted relatively low response rates and urged caution in interpretation, while saying steps were taken to limit nonresponse bias.

The pattern is not new, but the 2023 data show the low-skill share growing and the white–black gaps in literacy and numeracy larger than in 2017.

Intelligence deficiencies as correlated to elevated criminal behavior

When I specifically searched for the correlation between low intelligence and violent crime, Grok.com produced the following:

“Lower cognitive ability is linked to weaker impulse control, poorer foresight, and reduced ability to weigh long-term costs, which can raise the probability of criminal acts. The relationship is statistical, not deterministic: most people with below-average IQ are not violent, and many violent offenders score in the average range. Other factors, including personality, peer influence, and substance use, also contribute.

“Research consistently finds a negative correlation between intelligence and criminal offending, including violent crime. Meta-analyses of offender samples show average IQ scores roughly 8–10 points below population norms, with correlations typically in the range of −0.2 to −0.3. The association appears for both property and violent offenses and remains after controls for socioeconomic status, education, and race in multiple studies.”

In short, lower intelligence is associated with a higher risk of violent crime than average or above-average intelligence, but the relationship is statistical, not deterministic.

Takeaways

• It’s important to note that the overall decline in scores correlates with the influx of non-white and non-East Asians.

• Encouraging greater fertility among high-ability Americans and lower fertility among low-ability Americans would raise the population’s average scores over time.

• Declining white population share is associated with declining national averages on cognitive and scholastic measures, producing a less capable population overall.

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Sources/related links:

NCES: Highlights of the 2023 U.S. PIAAC Results

NCES press release, December 10, 2024

OECD Survey of Adult Skills (PIAAC)

View 31 black-on-white homicides found in September, 2026 ►